The Kansas City Chiefs’ win over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII vaulted Patrick Mahomes into the upper echelon of all-time great quarterbacks. The 28-year-old Mahomes matched the three Super Bowl rings that Tom Brady had won by the same age while being on pace to surpass him in virtually every meaningful passing statistic.
Brady’s accomplishments can feel insurmountable, but he didn’t hoist his fourth Lombardi Trophy until he was 37 years old. He got better over time—his eight best statistical seasons all came after his 30th birthday.
If Mahomes is similarly able to age like fine wine, he will retire as the GOAT. Here are 10 numbers that highlight how far ahead of his peers he is right now:
3 - Mahomes’ Super Bowl MVPs, tying him with Joe Montana. He is behind only Brady, who has five.
5 - Playoff comebacks Mahomes has orchestrated with his team trailing by at least 10 points. Since 2018, the Chiefs are 5-2 in playoff games when trailing by 10 or more points at any time, while the rest of the NFL is 8-55 in such games.
15 - Playoff games won by Mahomes, behind only Brady (35) and Montana (16). He is 15-3 across his first six postseasons, losing just once in regulation. Brady didn’t notch his 15th playoff victory until his age 34 season, and it took Montana until he was 37.
41 - Mahomes’ playoff passing touchdowns. Brett Favre recorded the second most by a quarterback in NFL history before his 29th birthday with 23, and Brady only had 15 by that age.
1.2% - The percentage of Mahomes’ playoff passes that have been intercepted, which is the lowest of any of the 20 quarterbacks with the most career playoff passing attempts. In his last seven postseason games across the Chiefs’ back-to-back Super Bowl runs, Mahomes has thrown 249 pass attempts and been nearly mistake-free, with just one interception, one lost fumble and 30 sack yards lost.
78% - Mahomes’ NFL winning percentage in the regular season and playoffs combined, which is the highest of any quarterback to start at least 100 games. The Chiefs are 89-25 with Mahomes at the helm, losing just four of those 114 games by more than one score. Brady retired with a 75% win rate.
0.292 - Mahomes’ career regular-season EPA/play (expected points added per play), which is a measure of the effect each play has on the offense’s likelihood to score. At 0.250, Peyton Manning is a distant second among quarterbacks with at least 1,000 plays (excluding garbage time) since 1999, when play-by-play data first became available.
0.312 - Mahomes’ career playoff EPA/play, which is not only higher than any other quarterback with at least 100 playoff plays, but also higher than his own regular season mark, despite facing stronger defenses.
0.342 - Mahomes’ career EPA/play when his team faces a win probability of 10-25%—he plays significantly more effectively when his back is to the wall. By contrast, the average EPA/play of the 10 quarterbacks with the most plays since 1999 (a group that includes Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, etc.) is far lower under these circ*mstances than when those players’ teams are winning.
0.391 - Mahomes’ career EPA/play in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter and overtime, meaning he plays his absolute best when under the most pressure. Among quarterbacks with at least 250 qualifying plays since 1999, Derek Carr's 0.240 is the second best and Josh Allen’s 0.239 is the third best.
(This article has been updated with more complete information on Mahomes' EPA/play in the last five minutes and overtime of games.)
