Super Bowl 58 predictions: Why our NFL staff can't pick against the Chiefs (2024)

The Chiefs beat the 49ers in overtime to win Super Bowl LVIII.

Perhaps The Athletic’s NFL staff has seen too much magic from Patrick Mahomes and company to expect anything different in Super Bowl LVIII.

Forty of the 50 votes (80 percent) side with the Kansas City Chiefs against the San Francisco 49ers at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday in our Super Bowl staff poll this year. Compare that to our picks from last year ahead of Super Bowl LVII, when 33 staff members out of 59 (55.9 percent) picked the Philadelphia Eagles over the Chiefs.

Some voters might have been influenced by Mahomes’ high ankle sprain then — a notable storyline heading into Super Bowl LVII. It wasn’t an issue as Mahomes was indeed magical against the Eagles en route to a second Super Bowl title. Our staff might have remembered that performance this time around, along with the Chiefs weathering hostile environments in Buffalo and Baltimore this postseason to reach Sunday’s game.

Las Vegas sides with the 49ers, at least. San Francisco is a two-point betting favorite as of Saturday. And some of our writers believe the 49ers are the more talented team. Most of the staff expects a close game, too, with the average margin of victory among the score predictions at 4.3 points. Only seven of the voters picked a double-digit margin of victory.

Maybe the 49ers prove our staff members wrong as the Chiefs did last year. But as you’ll see below, many can’t be brought to pick against Kansas City.

Why the Chiefs will win …

The Chiefs will win the Super Bowl on a down year because the 49ers defense is not very good, contrary to public opinion. They were lucky to beat the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in the playoffs — the Lions pretty much choked — and it’s a big leap of logic to think Chase Young and the 49ers defense suddenly show up and start playing well on Sunday. Mahomes will pick the 49ers apart, while a Chiefs defense led by Chris Jones and a talented, young secondary will hold off Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel just enough. — Vic Tafur, Raiders beat writer

The Chiefs have gotten hot when it has mattered, passing every test in the postseason that many assumed might trip them up. Yes, Mahomes and Travis Kelce, among others on Kansas City, are superstars. But beating the Miami Dolphins and their high-octane offense at Arrowhead, followed by road wins over the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens (with NFL MVP Lamar Jackson), makes them tough to pick against. That’s especially true after the 49ers needed a huge wake-up call against the Lions in the second half of the NFC Championship Game. Finally: Can you really bet against new Chiefs superfan Taylor Swift after the year she’s had? Nope. — Alison Cotsonika, NFL senior managing editor

While I think the 49ers are a deeper and more talented team, I believed the same to be true of the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game, and Mahomes proved again to be unconquerable. He’s narrowed his focus to his most reliable assets — Kelce, Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice — and the offense has been more consistent as a result. And because I still think both defenses will hold their own in the red zone, we’ll have a Super Bowl scorigami. — Jeff Howe, NFL national insider

Don’t blame me, but I want this Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift love story to have a happy ending complete with another Super Bowl finish. From a football standpoint, it’s hard to argue against how well the Chiefs have been playing of late and you’ve got to go with the proven Mahomes at this point. While San Francisco has pulled it out late in the playoffs, I think the Chiefs withstand any 49ers push. Kelce, Mahomes and co. will all be bejeweled once more by Sunday night’s end. — Charlotte Carroll, Giants beat writer

Patrick Mahomes. — Mike DeFabo, Steelers beat writer

As several others have suggested, I think the 49ers have the better top-to-bottom roster. They’re more than capable of winning this game. I just don’t love the Niners’ vibe right now, from their narrow playoff wins to their struggles with their practice field in Las Vegas this week. The Chiefs — and Mahomes in particular — have been there before and are the stronger team at the moment, which is really what it’s all about. — Adam Hirshfield, NFL senior editor

Why the 49ers will win …

Watching Mahomes play is like watching Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods or Tom Brady in their prime. And you should never pick against them. But I’m foolishly doing just that in this game. The 49ers are the NFL’s best team from top to bottom, and they are relatively healthy. They have too many weapons on offense and they have a battle-tested defense that will do enough to keep Mahomes somewhat in check. In their playoff wins over the Packers and Lions, the 49ers showed the ability to overcome not playing their best at times. That’s exactly what championship teams do in those situations. Even if the 49ers are down early, they won’t panic. They’ve been knocking on the door too long to not finally kick it in. — Jon Machota, Cowboys beat writer

Kansas City has Mahomes and its offensive rejuvenation during this run has been remarkable. Still, I keep waiting for those cracks to resurface. I might be a fool, but I think they show just enough to open the door for a suddenly resilient 49ers team that looked toasted twice in the NFC playoffs to flex that muscle once more. Then, Kyle Shanahan’s offensive mastery finally crosses the finish line with a Lombardi. — Paul Dehner Jr., Bengals beat writer

Every sign points Kansas City’s way. The Chiefs have the all-world QB who’s got the glow like Bruce Leroy. The Chiefs have the mastermind coach who’s won at this level and is devastating with time to prepare. The Chiefs have the edge on defense (they haven’t given up more than 27 all season), which figures to negate the 49ers’ main strength — their offense. The Chiefs have the kind of running back in Pacheco who gives the 49ers suspect run defense fits. The Chiefs are cooking with grease right now, beating favorites on their own field, while the 49ers struggled at home against inferior opponents. Not much points to the 49ers winning this. Which is why they will. Things often don’t go as expected in Super Bowls. If the 49ers have one thing in their favor, it’s heartbreak. They’ve had their hearts ripped out numerous times over the last four years. Maybe them being fed up with coming up short makes the difference. Gonna take some intangible like that to dethrone Mahomes. — Marcus Thompson, lead columnist

The 49ers have the better team, but the Chiefs have the quarterback who tilts the field. The key for the 49ers is to put themselves in a position where Mahomes can’t win the game in the final minute. That means taking an early lead and playing ball control. If the 49ers can run against the Chiefs’ defense, they can win the game. — Dan Pompei, NFL senior writer

We are all looking at the wrong thing when trying to figure out this game. It’s all Mahomes, Kelce, the underrated Chiefs defense and Steve Spagnuolo on one side and Brock Purdy, McCaffrey and the Shanahan offense on the other. I can’t get out of my head the talent on the defensive side of the ball for the 49ers and how the only time these Chiefs didn’t win a Super Bowl is when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers harassed Mahomes into submission a few years back. I can see this happening again even with Mahomes being able to avoid pressure as well as he does. There’s too much talent on the 49ers defense and they are going to play bully ball in the trenches. Mahomes will be the only reason this is as close as it will be. — Mark Kaboly, Steelers beat writer

Shanahan is not going down twice to Andy Reid in the Super Bowl. Boy genius will have his day and win his first Super Bowl with the most unlikely quarterback. I think the Niners will fall behind in the first half, as we’ve seen in their two other postseason games, but they’ll adjust to Spagnuolo’s defense and come out in the second half swinging. — Kalyn Kahler, NFL senior writer

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(Illustration: John Bradford /The Athletic; top photos: Chris Unger, Ezra Shaw and Al Bello/ Getty Images)