The climate change conference being held in Glasgow, COP26, is almost here.
Government officials and politicians from around the world must bring new climate targets, showing what they will do to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and beyond. While initiatives like The Regenerators from BBC Bitesize help us be more climate-friendly as individuals, this conference will decide what happens on a global scale.
There are four main aims for this year’s meeting, but what do they entail and what will achieving them mean for our planet? More importantly, what will happen if we don’t achieve them? We’ve asked the Royal Meteorological Society to take a closer look at each aim to try and break it down.
1. Secure global net zero by mid-century and keep 1.5 degrees within reach
Where are we at now?
The average temperature at the Earth’s surface has risen by just over 1.0 °C since pre-industrial times, largely due to increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere as a result of human activity. This is the average across the whole Earth, including both ocean and land.
What could happen in the future?
A warmer world leads to floods, droughts, sea level rise, extreme weather events and changes to ecosystems. In 2018 a special report on global warming from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) demonstrated that the worst impacts can be avoided if the temperature rise is kept below 1.5 °C.
What can we do to meet the target?
Limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 °C is a very ambitious target, but if enough measures are quickly put in place, it could be achieved. This year’s IPCC report says that this is still the case, even if we overshoot the target temporarily and drop back down.
Achieving the 1.5 °C target requires halving emissions of greenhouse gases by 2030 and reaching ‘net zero’ emissions by 2050. However, in September 2021 the United Nations warned that the emission reductions that countries have currently pledged would lead to around 2.7°C warming by 2100.
In order to reach ‘net-zero’ emissions by 2050, we would need to remove as much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere every year as we put into it. The best way to do this is to stop emitting it in the first place, by using renewable or nuclear energy. If we can’t achieve this, we need to develop ways of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and locking it away in secure stores in the ground.
2. Adapt to protect communities and natural habitats
Where are we at now?
The climate has already changed and will continue to change over the coming decades, even if we massively reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. Countries need to prepare for the impacts on sea levels, water supplies, agriculture, infrastructure and health.
What might happen in the future?
Climate projections from the Met Office say we will experience more frequent and intense summer heatwaves. In July 2019, the UK recorded its highest temperature of 38.7 °C at Cambridge Botanic Garden, beating the previous record of 38.5 °C set during the extreme heat of August 2003. The State of the Climate 2020 report, published in the Royal Meteorological Society’s International Journal of Climatology, warns that British summers could regularly reach a “new normal” of 40 °C within a decade.
We are also likely to experience more frequent periods of heavy rainfall, especially in winter, leading to increased flooding. Meanwhile, sea levels could rise by around 80 cm for some parts of the UK coast by 2100. Most at risk from coastal flooding and erosion are the low-lying areas of eastern and southern England, including the Wash, the Humber and the Thames.
Countries are preparing for the future by creating Adaptation Plans, such as putting early warning systems and flood defences in place to avoid further loss of life, livelihoods and natural habitats.
3. Mobilise finance
What does this mean?
All over the world, there are projects underway to keep global emissions down or protect vulnerable communities from rising sea levels. In the Sahel, they plan to harness the sun’s rays to generate power. Meanwhile, the low-lying islands of the Maldives need a solution to protect their beaches. However, it costs a lot of money to set up and run these projects.
Some of the money will come from governments and public finances. COP encourages businesses, banks and insurance companies to work together to invest in developing the technology that we need.
Where are we at?
As part of the 2015 Paris Agreement, higher-income countries pledged to mobilise $100 billion per year by 2020 to support lower-income communities around the world to act on climate change. However, this target has not yet been met. The Glasgow conference will ask wealthier nations to pledge more money by 2025.
4. Work together to deliver
What does this mean?
At COP26, governments, businesses, communities, intergovernmental organisations, non-governmental organisations and faith groups will all have a part to play. Collaboration will be key to avoid a climate crisis.
One example of working together is the UK Business Group Alliance for Net Zero, which draws together over 100 leading business groups and organisations to work collaboratively with the UK Government and other stakeholders. Another is the Powering Past Coal Alliance, which is an international coalition that helps with the transition to clean energy. According to the International Energy Agency, coal is the single largest source of global temperature increase, so phasing out coal-fired electricity is one of the most important steps to tackle the climate crisis.
What's being done?
COP26 will aim to finalise the Paris Rulebook - the detailed rules that make the Paris Agreement work. The key area is the setting up of carbon markets, where countries can offset their carbon emissions by paying for emissions reductions in other countries. But a poorly designed carbon market could let polluters buy the right to pollute too easily.
COP26 is an important meeting on climate change, but it's not the only way that we can address climate change. People across the world are working hard to find solutions to climate change, and there are lots of ways to create change yourself - be it at home, at school, or in our community. For more ideas on how you can make a difference, visit The Regenerators.
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