New Caledonia: Six questions to understand the current crisis (2024)

The French overseas territory of New Caledonia, which had been under an increasingly tense situation for several months, has been overwhelmed by riots since Monday, May 13. This wave of unrest erupted just as the Assemblée Nationale was about to vote on a constitutional amendment to reform the archipelago's electorate, which was strongly opposed by the territory's pro-independence camp. A state of emergency was declared on the territory on May 15, after three days of violence that left five people dead, including two gendarmes, and hundreds injured. Below are some explanations to help our readers understand the complex reasons behind this conflagration.

What are the sources of tension between cultural communities in New Caledonia?

Issues between the archipelago's communities are a central factor in creating the tension that has wracked the territory for decades. This dynamic pits the two main communities in New Caledonia against each other:

• The Kanak people, who are the descendants of the archipelago's first inhabitants, before French colonization. They account for 40% of the territory's 270,000 or so inhabitants, according to the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE).
• The "Europeans," who represent a quarter of the population, can be further divided into two categories: Firstly, New Caledonians of European origin, the descendants of the white colonists who have occupied the territory since the 19^th century – who are called "Caldoches" by the archipelago's indigenous populations. Secondly, people who have recently arrived from mainland France, who usually live in the territory on a temporary basis – who are sometimes derogatorily referred to as "Metro" or "Zoreill."

New Caledonia also has a notable population of mixed-race people, with 11.3% of its residents declaring that they belong to more than one community. The rest of the population is made up of people whose background is linked to different waves of immigration.

This multiculturalism is marred by major economic inequalities. Kanak youth are "extremely marginalized," explained Mathias Chauchat, an advisor to the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) and professor at the University of New Caledonia, speaking on French radio on May 16, and they see those arriving from mainland France "progressively taking their jobs." Thus, 46% of Kanak people have obtained only a junior high school certificate as their highest educational qualification, compared with 11% of the territory's "Europeans."

What is 'the unfreezing of the electorate,' which set the territory ablaze?

Since a constitutional reform in 2007, the electoral rolls for New Caledonia's provincial elections have been frozen, remaining stuck at their 1998 status. This means that they cannot be revised annually to reflect the arrivals and departures of voters in the territory, as is the case for New Caledonian electoral rolls for other elections (presidential, legislative, European) or electoral rolls in mainland France. This rule limits voting rights for these elections to people who lived in the archipelago before 1998, excluding more recently arrived people, who today represent 20% of the territory's population.

In January 2024, the government tabled a constitutional bill to unfreeze the electorate from July 1, 2024, by incorporating citizens who were either born in the territory, or who have resided there for at least ten years, onto the special electoral rolls. This reform would result in 25,000 people being added to these electoral rolls, out of a total of 42,596 residents of the archipelago who are currently excluded from them. Approved by the Sénat on April 2, and by the Assemblée Nationale on May 13, the text still has to be approved by a joint session of both houses of the French Parliament, held in Versailles, to be definitively adopted.

This reform has been strongly criticized by New Caledonia's pro-independence groups, who have feared that it would marginalize the Kanak people by diluting their electoral power. The issue is extremely sensitive, since the provincial elections determine the composition of the three provincial assemblies, as well as the Congress of New Caledonia, which itself elects the New Caledonian government. This government has had a pro-independence president since 2021. Above all, the pro-independence movement considers the frozen status of the electorate, obtained from the Nouméa Accord (1998), to be definitive.

On the other hand, the government considers this promise to be null and void, since the 20-year transition period set out in the agreement ended with a "no" vote in the last referendum on New Caledonian independence in 2021. In addition, the highest French administrative court, the Council of State, has reaffirmed the principles of universal suffrage, without which the next provincial elections could be canceled.

Opposition to this expansion of the electorate has triggered several demonstrations over the past few months, which have given rise to riots and violent clashes with law enforcement officers since mid-May.

What political groups are present in the territory?

- The FLNKS

The Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) is a coalition of pro-independence political parties, which was created in 1984 under the auspices of Jean-Marie Tjibaou, the then-leader of the Kanak pro-independence movement who was assassinated in 1989. After unilaterally declaring the archipelago's independence and boycotting several elections, the FLNKS gradually committed to negotiations with Paris, signing the Matignon Agreement in 1988 and the Nouméa Accord 10 years later. Today, its various parties have members elected to the archipelago's various parliamentary assemblies, representatives in the local government and, more recently, an elected member of the French Sénat. The FLNKS is currently opposed to the unfreezing of the territory's electorate.

- The CCAT

The Coordination Cell for Field Action (CCAT) is an organization with close ties to the FNLKS. Created at the end of 2023 to coordinate the campaign against the reform of the electorate, it has organized several demonstrations in recent months.

The government has accused the organization of being responsible for the upsurge in violent incidents across the archipelago. Louis Le Franc, the high commissioner for New Caledonia, has described it as "an organization of thugs who engage in clear acts of violence, with the intent to kill." Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, has deemed it to be a mafia-style organization that "commits looting, murders." Denying the CCAT's political nature, and describing it as "the armed wing of the FLNKS," on May 15, Darmanin announced that 10 of its "mafia leaders" had been placed under house arrest.

The National Council of Kanaky Chiefs, which represents the main Kanak tribal chiefs, has lent its support to CCAT, judging that it "is not a terrorist or mafia group as certain political authorities would have people believe."

For its part, the group has officially called for "actions" to continue in a "peaceful" manner. In a statement, the organization felt that the attacks "committed on businesses, companies, public buildings and facilities were not necessary," but that they were the expressions of "societies' invisibles."

- Loyalists

"Loyalists" or "non-independentists" refer to the political factions that are opposed to New Caledonian independence. Situated on the right of the political spectrum, with some of them being close to the Rassemblement National.

Other movements from the center and the right have since gained prominence. The Les Loyalistes coalition, whose leader, Sonia Backès, was a junior minister in the government of former prime minister Elizabeth Borne (2022-2023), currently has 12 elected members in the archipelago's congress.

In the current crisis, the loyalists have been advocating the government's proposal to open up the electorate. However, their positions are sometimes contradictory. The hardest line, which was championed during negotiations for a "small agreement" between pro-independence parties and loyalists in spring 2023, is that of former senator Pierre Frogier (Les Républicains, LR, right), who has gone so far as to argue for a partition of New Caledonia, with one electoral roll per province. Conversely, the more moderate loyalist faction has advocated "a definitive consensus, in a New Caledonia that is one and indivisible."

What happened in 1984, the flashpoint that led to 4 years of near-civil war?

In July 1983, a round-table discussion in the suburbs of Paris brought together a pro-independence delegation, led by Jean-Marie Tjibaou, and loyalists. For the first time, New Caledonia's "right to independence" was recognized by the French state. Additionally, the Melanesian independence fighters acknowledged that they were not the only "victims of history" in their land, which also included the descendants of convicts and immigrant workers. A referendum on self-determination was scheduled for 1989.

At the end of 1984, the FLNKS union of pro-independence parties called for a boycott of the November 18 provincial elections, to protest against a government plan to impose a new status on New Caledonia. The Kanak movement stepped up their actions, from blocking roads to setting fire to town halls. From November 20 to 22, they laid siege to the mining town of Thio, which was administered by right-wing "Caldoche" officials, and they disarmed settlers and occupied police stations. On December 1, the FLNKS proclaimed a "Provisional Government of Kanaky" – the name given to New Caledonia by the pro-independence movement.

Arriving on December 4, government delegate Edgard Pisani succeeded in getting the FLNKS to lift the blockades by releasing 17 pro-independence prisoners. Yet on the same day, the Hienghène massacre took place: Loyalists ambushed and killed 10 Kanak people, including two of Jean-Marie Tjibaou's brothers. On December 31, a group named the Comité Contre l'Indépendance ("Committee Against Independence") claimed responsibility for one of the attacks, which struck Nouméa without causing any casualties.

In early January 1985, Pisani unveiled a plan to hold a vote on self-determination in July. However, due to a lack of consensus, the referendum was postponed. After the death of Yves Tual, a nephew of Front National (FN, far-right, the previous name of the RN) leader Roger Galliot, anti-independence riots broke out in Nouméa on January 11. The following day, a state of emergency was declared.

The clashes took the form of a quasi-civil war between independence fighters and loyalists, resulting in the deaths of 80 people, culminating in the 1988 bloodbath known as the Ouvéa cave attack.

What did the 1988 Matignon Accords stipulate?

"The communities of New Caledonia have suffered too much, in their collective dignity, in the integrity of people and property, from several decades of incomprehension and violence." Signed on June 26, 1988, the Matignon Accords cemented reconciliation and restored peace to the island after four years of bloody near-civil war. Negotiated under the auspices of Socialist former prime minister Michel Rocard, with representatives from both the pro-independence parties (FLNKS president Jean-Marie Tjibaou) and loyalists (RPCR leader Jacques Lafleur), they were ratified by a referendum with 80% of the vote, despite a low turnout (37%).

The aim of these agreements was to correct the socio-economic imbalances between the communities, and set out a 10-year transitional autonomous status for the territory, at the end of which a local referendum on self-determination would be held.

In particular, they reorganized the archipelago's administration by creating three semi-autonomous provinces (the Loyalty Islands, South and North), each with its own deliberative assembly.

What were the results of the territory's self-determination referendums?

- 1987: The first referendum on self-determination was held in 1987, on the initiative of the government of then-prime minister Jacques Chirac. It was open to anyone who had resided for more than three years in New Caledonia. The pro-independence movement denounced this expansion of the electorate as an attempt to "demographically drown out" their demand for independence. They boycotted the referendum. The "no" vote prevailed by a wide margin (98.3%), with a high abstention rate (41%).

The Matignon Accords provided for a new referendum on self-determination to be held in 1998. That year, however, under the Nouméa Accord, the French government, pro-independence parties and loyalists agreed to postpone the referendum by 20 years, in exchange for greater autonomy for the archipelago.

- 2018: The question of independence was therefore only put to a new referendum in 2018: That time, the "no" vote won by 57%. In accordance with the Nouméa Accord, two more identical referendums were to be held thereafter, to give independence a chance, and if they did not result in a new political organization, "the partners will have to examine the situation thus created."

- 2020: The "no" vote won again, yet by a tighter margin (53%), due to a surge in support for the pro-independence faction.

- 2021: In December 2021, the pro-independence movement asked for the vote to be postponed because of the Covid-19 crisis. The government refused, straining political relations and leading to a new boycott: The "no" vote won again, by 96.5%.

In each referendum, communities' allegiances have been clearly represented, with Kanak communities voting in favor of independence and other communities voting against. As a result, pro-independence strongholds and voting patterns have been built up over time, and remain virtually unchanged.